Eight Confirmed Covid-19 Cases In The Last Week

Jun 1, 2020 /

Topic:

  • 8 new cases in Uvalde County in the last week. 6 cases are in the zip code 78801 and 2 from 78881. Timing of 6 of the cases is consistent with Memorial Day activities. The 7th case is from sometime in mid-May and is community spread, the source will never be known.
  • By the Governor’s mandate, the staff and residents of nursing homes are being tested; this includes approximately 320 persons locally. Results take 3-5 days. Testing is being performed by the National Guard on May 31, 2020 and June 1, 2020.
  • Pandemic planning for Uvalde, TX using Centers for Disease Control (CDC) best current estimates for COVID-19: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

The CDC lists 5 scenarios for pandemic planning on the site. The following numbers are using scenario 5 for Uvalde County. Scenario 5 is what the CDC states is their current best estimate based on existing data. 

  • Uvalde County has 27,000 residents, 16.8 percent of which are over 65. (https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/uvaldecountytexas#)
  • Current best estimate is that 35 percent of all infections are asymptomatic. 
    • 27,000*0.35=9,450 people wouldn’t know they have the disease (asymptomatic). 
    • Leaving 17,550 who become symptomatic.

Mortality estimates: 

  • 1 of every 2,000 people ages 0-49 who became symptomatic would die.
  • 1 of every 500 people ages 50-64 who became symptomatic would die.
  • 13 of every 1,000 people (1.3%) over 65 who became symptomatic would die.
  • Overall, 0.4 percent of symptomatic persons would die or 70 Uvaldeans; 58 of whom would be over 65.
  • When you add in the asymptomatic persons, overall mortality is 0.26 percent per the current best estimate of CDC epidemiologists.

Hospitalization estimates:

  • 17 of every 1000 people (1.7%) ages 0-49 who became symptomatic would be hospitalized.
  • 45 of every 1000 people (4.5%) ages 50-64 who became symptomatic would be hospitalized.
  • 74 of every 1000 people (7.4%) over 65 who became symptomatic would be hospitalized.
  • Overall its 3.4 percent of symptomatic person would need hospitalization or 597 people, 336 would be over 65. 

This is assuming the CDC’s estimate of 100 percent infection of the population. The goal of flattening the curve is to make it manageable for the healthcare systems so that those who need hospitalization will have it available at that time. The state epidemiologists believe a manageable infection rate is 3 active infections per 1000 population; or 81 active infections for our county of 27000 people. 

UMH currently does not have access to the only known drug to decrease illness severity. Any patient with overwhelming disease, comorbidities, or who may need ventilation will be sent to a COVID center in San Antonio.


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